2020.09.23 18:38 TheUnfortunateNews The Real-World universe and Fallout universe never experienced a divergence - the Fallout realm is completely separate from reality and we can use astronomy to prove it.
2020.08.22 09:22 ianvideo 21st August 2020 - 'Cincinnati' preview; Lindsay Davenport interview
2020.08.18 09:39 ianvideo 17th August 2020 - Lexington, Prague and Life inside the US Open bubble
2020.08.02 17:54 ianvideo 2nd August 2020 - Olympics Re-Lived: 2000 Sydney
2020.07.18 15:34 Celestiowl First built pc, for gaming. Already have the graphics card but everything else I'm lost. help please 🙏
What will you be doing with this PC? Be as specific as possible, and include specific games or programs you will be using.Will be a gaming pc. Mostly play league of legends and valorant. But would like to be able to play more intensive games with good visual settings and high fps. Had issues running ori will of the wisps, borderlands 3 and dishonoured 2 for example and would want these to be playable. As well as any other newer big games which I currently have to turn to console to play. I use chrome discord and Spotify often alongside any gaming. Would like to be able to screenshare games to friends without issue too.
What is your maximum budget before rebates/shipping/taxes?£600-£700
When do you plan on building/buying the PC? Note: beyond a week or two from today means any build you receive will be out of date when you want to buy.Buy parts as soon as possible to build it.
What, exactly, do you need included in the budget? (ToweOS/monitokeyboard/mouse/etc)I already have a graphics card. And all the peripherals I need. Everything else u need in the pc itself, case power supply ect I need to buy.
Which country (and state/province) will you be purchasing the parts in? If you're in US, do you have access to a Microcenter location?I'm in the UK
If reusing any parts (including monitor(s)/keyboard/mouse/etc), what parts will you be reusing? Brands and models are appreciated.Will reuse my geforce gtx 1060 graphics card. Corsair strafe rgb keyboard, hyper x headset, utech smart venus mmo mouse, finfine microphone and two Asus monitors which have DVI connection but I have an hdmi adaptor for one.
Will you be overclocking? If yes, are you interested in overclocking right away, or down the line? CPU and/or GPU?I don't understand overclocking so don't plan to.
Are there any specific features or items you want/need in the build? (ex: SSD, large amount of storage or a RAID setup, CUDA or OpenCL support, etc)Not that I'm aware of. 1tb of storage would probably suit me fine.
What type of network connectivity do you need? (Wired and/or WiFi) If WiFi is needed and you would like to find the fastest match for your wireless router, please list any specifics.Wired connection for Internet, but if a problem ever arises with that I would like the option of WiFi connection.
Do you have any specific case preferences (Size like ITX/microATX/mid-towefull-tower, styles, colors, window or not, LED lighting, etc), or a particular color theme preference for the components?It would be nice to have a glass side panel and led lighting but doesn't need to be anything crazy or extravagent. Size wise I don't mind as long as everything fits happily it doesn't need to be ridiculously compact.
Do you need a copy of Windows included in the budget? If you do need one included, do you have a preference?I do need Windows, and I don't know how to go about getting this.
Extra info or particulars:Need to have at least 6 usable USB ports
2020.07.13 12:55 TELMxWILSON New Music Monday (Week 28) Fresh tunes have arrived! [+weekly updated playlist]
|Weekly updated Spotify Playlist||H2L: New Drum & Bass|
|Soundcloud Playlist||H2L: New Drum & Bass Soundcloud|
|Youtube Playlist||H2L: New Drum & Bass Youtube|
|Last Week's list||http://reddit.com/hm7yer|
2020.07.09 20:33 ianvideo 9th July 2020 - Wimbledon Re-Lived 2005: Venus Williams - Game Changer
2020.07.09 07:45 Justwonderinif Golden State Killer Timeline V
The obituary for Kathleen Louise Bosanko says she was 87 when she died. Kathleen was called “Kay.” She was survived by two daughters and two sons, including Joe DeAngelo. She was close to her three grandchildren, all daughters, from DeAngelo."
According to Angela, Joe cracked the front door open a couple of inches. Angela said she could only see Joe's nose and eyeball next to the doorknob, as Joe looked around. Joe recognized Angela. But he seemed to be trying to determine if she brought anyone else with her. Angela was alone.
Joe invited Angela in. Angela complimented Joe on the roast on the counter. Angela noticed Joe's large calves and said it looks like he eats well, and he looks good.
Angela told Joe she "took one of those DNA tests," and received the results. Joe was silent, and motionless, and stared at the wall. Joe eventually asked: "What else did you learn?" Joe showed little interest in the DNA results from 23 and Me so Angela ended the conversation. Angela said she was confused by Joe's tone and his sudden hesitancy, so she didn't tell Joe what she really wanted to discuss. Angela says now that her instincts told her not to pursue the conversation. She wanted to talk about an article she'd read that discussed DNA types consistent among serial killers. As far as Angela knew, the article she read had nothing to do with her. She just wanted to have this conversation with Joe for fun, having no knowledge of Joe's crimes.
Angela says Joe always liked to talk about interesting things. She thought the DNA topic would be an ice breaker, as they hadn't seen each other since 2004. Angela thought a conversation about DNA might impress Joe. Joe said he had to leave and was irritated. Angela couldn't figure out why this encounter went south, when she was trying to reconnect with a family member. Joe said he would visit Constance as Constance was diagnosed with cancer.
Michelle McNamara and Paul Haynes remove "half of the [Orange County Sheriff's] department’s evidence from the Golden State Killer case," and store it at her home, allegedly breaking the chain of custody that would be needed to authenticate it in court. Michelle and researcher Paul Haynes sneak out the evidence with the help of sheriff’s staff, under the nose of Orange County’s then-undersheriff.
“Michelle and Paul were led to a narrow closet at the Orange County Sheriff’s Department that housed sixty-five Bankers Boxes full of [Golden State Killer] case files. Remarkably, they were permitted to look through them—under supervision—and borrow what they wanted,” states McNamara’s book, I’ll Be Gone in the Dark, which was published about two years after she died.
“This was the Mother Lode. They set aside thirty-five of the boxes along with two large plastic bins to take back to L.A.,” the book adds. The author and researcher loaded the records into two SUVs “while the undersheriff, unaware of what they were doing, emerged from the building and luckily didn’t seem to notice what was going down. They moved as quickly as physically possible, lest people at OCSD changed their mind.”
In June of 2016 the Sacramento Sheriff’s department partnered with the FBI and other law enforcement agencies and offered a $50,000 reward for any information leading to the location of this person. This announcement came at a press conference held 40 years after the first known rape in Sacramento. After that press conference Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert convened a meeting of all involved counties including the elected District Attorneys asking each to dedicate more resources to answer that question. Those DAs offices responded — Ventura, Orange, Santa Barbara, Tulare, Alameda, Contra Costa, Stanislaw, San Joaquin, Santa Clara, and Sacramento answered the call.
"Moonie Surfer": New composite released by the FBI
In the Fall of 2017 Contra Costa Assistant Chief Investigator Paul Holes asked District Attorney Schubert to assist in using a new DNA tool: investigative genetic genealogy - IGG. It possibly developed a lead in the case. Investigator Holes collaborated with the Ventura county District Attorneys office which had located an unopened sexual assault kit collected from the homicides of Lyman and Charlene Smith, in which Charlene was sexually assaulted.
In January of 2018 semen from the vaginal sample in Charlene’s kit was used to develop a specialized DNA profile intended for investigative generic genealogy. The DNA profile can be uploaded to a publicly available genetic genealogy database for a list of names of potential relatives of the killer. No DNA and no other genetic information from these potential relatives was shared with law enforcement. A working group consisted of Paul Holes, Steve Kramer - Division Counsel for the LA field office of the FBI, Genealogist Barbara Rae Venter, and Sacramento District Attorney’s Office LT. Kurt Campbell, and investigative assistant Monica Czajkowski began the laborious process of building a family tree.
On March 18th 2018 Sacramento DA Investigative Assistant Czajkowski notified the team, “we just found another guy”. And the answer to that one question that has gone un-answered for over 40 years revealed itself. This investigation uncovered the following about Joseph DeAngelo: He grew up in Rancho Cordova. He served in the military. He was engaged to woman named Bonnie, a name uttered during an EAR sexual assault in Yolo county. He was employed as a police officer near Visalia during the ransacking series. He left Tulare county after the officer McGowen shooting, and then he worked as an Auburn police officer during the same time period as the East Area Rapist series, but was fired for shoplifting dog repellent. DeAngelo then moves to Southern California before returning to Sacramento. The Sacramento Sheriff’s department began following Joseph DeAngelo.
DeAngelo was seen racing his motorcycle on the freeway at high rates of speed, weaving in and out of traffic and performing sophisticated counter surveillance maneuvers.
On April 23rd 2018, using an empty garbage truck, detectives collected trash discarded by Joseph DeAngelo from the garbage can which was placed on the public street for collection. The Sacramento county DA crime lab tested a tissue found in that trash and developed a profile that matched not only the defendant, but also matched the DNA profile of the perpetrator in 3 Contra Costa rapes, and 8 murders in Southern California.
On April the 24th 2018 Joseph DeAngelo was arrested while standing on the driveway of his residence in Citrus Heights. Detectives interviewed the defendant after his arrest, confronting him with he sexual assaults in the rapist series and the murder of Brian and Katie Maggiore. They mentioned the overwhelming DNA evidence against him regarding the murder of the Smiths in Ventura and Cheri Domingo and Greg Sanchez in Santa Barbara.
Just a few hours before the interview, detectives observed DeAngelo vigorously working on his yard — jumping in and out of his truck and lifting heavy objects. Now, sitting in the interview room he feigned feeble incoherence.
Later that day DeAngelo admitted to the deputies that he just pretended to act crazy to avoid getting in trouble. A short while later while sitting alone in the interview room on April 24th 2018, Joseph DeAngelo began to talk to himself. And among other things, he said:
“I did all that. I didn't have the strength to push him out. He made me. He went with me. It was like — in my head. I mean, he’s a part of me. I didn’t want to do those things. I pushed Jerry out and had a happy life. I did all those things. I’ve destroyed all their lives. So now I gotta pay the price.” Source
Mr. Patrick (Pat) Monno identified Joseph DeAngelo from a photo stack in 2018. From a face to face contact with DeAngelo when he had interrupted him during a prowling and chased him afterward. He had gotten a look at his face. That prowling took place on November 23rd 1975.
Beth Snelling also identified DeAngelo from a photo stack in 2018 from an incident where she had observed him peeking into her bedroom window approximately one month prior to the murder of her father.
Five other witnesses also identified DeAngelo in 2018 from photo stacks based on individual face to face contacts with DeAngelo during prowling and ransacking events occurring around Visalia in 1975.
After DeAngelo's arrest in 2018, Gary Schneider told law enforcement that DeAngelo was attacked by a German Shepherd when they, as teenagers, burglarized a house in Gold River. Angry at the dog, DeAngelo set it on fire with a M-80 firecracker.
Joseph James DeAngelo Jr. is expected to accept a life sentence later this month for a series of murders and rapes in the 1970s and ’80s, one victim and close relatives of two other victims said.
Lawyers in the Golden State KilleEast Area Rapist case believe they have reached a deal under which suspect Joseph James DeAngelo Jr. will plead guilty to 88 murder, rape and other charges at a June 29 hearing and avoid a death penalty trial with a life sentence imposed instead, four sources have told The Sacramento Bee.
Details of the agreement, which has not been formalized in court documents filed in the case, still are being worked out, as is the final decision on where the hearing will take place.
2020.07.08 18:24 ianvideo 8th July 2020 - Wimbledon Re-Lived 2004: The making of an unrivalry
2020.06.06 21:58 Hitch42 Audio-Drama.com links from May 31 to June 6, 2020
2020.06.02 21:35 ianvideo 2nd June 2020 - Roland Garros Re-Lived 2002: The Serena Slam Begins
2020.06.01 19:07 ianvideo 1st June 2020 - Roland Garros Re-Lived 2001: Jennifer Capriati – the crowning, and the cautionary tale
2020.06.01 16:40 StellaGraphia Meanings of planets and houses in Mundane Astrology rather than Personal astrology (keep these in mind when looking at this week's events)
2020.05.24 07:52 Nocodeyv Devotional to Inana-Ishtar as the Evening Star
2020.05.18 02:56 ParadigmThreat Plagerist H.G.Wells described and predicted the Heat Ray used on U.S. Military's Active Denial System over 100 years ago.
2020.05.15 22:00 ModernJazz-2K20 A Beginner's Guide to the New Jazz Generation Jazzwise
2020.05.03 18:00 llaverna Weekly Round-Up: April 27th - May 3rd
|200502||BTS @ Nickelodeon Kids' Choice Awards|
|200427||IU To Release New Single on the 6th of May Featuring BTS Suga|
|200428||BTS MAP OF THE SOUL TOUR Complete Rescheduling Notice|
|200501||BTS DIY Cubic Painting set to be released on May 6th on 11st (online retailer)|
|200427||Weverse shop is restocked on everything.|
|200429||The Late Late Show With James Corden Will Re-Airing BTS Carpool Karaoke Tonight|
|Bomb||200430||[BANGTAN BOMB] A Boisterous Shooting of '3J'||Thread|
|Bomb||200503||[BANGTAN BOMB] '보.라.해' VCR time behind||Thread|
|Run BTS!||200428||Run BTS! 2020 - EP.102||Thread|
|Teaser||200428||IU - 에잇 (eight) (Prod. & Feat. by SUGA of BTS) Image Teaser||Thread|
|Teaser||200428||BTS(방탄소년단) 'BREAK THE SILENCE: DOCU-SERIES' Official Trailer||Thread|
|Teaser||200430||IU - 에잇 (eight) (Prod. & Feat. SUGA of BTS) IU Teaser Image 2||Thread|
|Teaser||200502||IU - 에잇 (eight) (Prod. & Feat. SUGA of BTS) Moving Teaser||Thread|
|V Live||200427||Jin, Jimin, SUGA Vlive||Thread|
|V Live||200502||SUGA Vlive||Thread|
|YT Live||200428||j-hope live||Thread|
|YT Live||200501||Jimin Live||Thread|
|Other||200427||Learn! KOREAN with BTS EP 08. Numbers: One, Two, Three||Thread|
|200427||Weverse||Jimin, Jin, SUGA||Thread|
|200502||SUGA and RM||Thread|
|200427||Liiv M X BTS - 취향 인터뷰 '진' by KB국민은행 (Jin)|
|200427||Hyundai Worldwide on Twitter #DarkSelfieChallenge - RM|
|200428||Hyundai Worldwide on Twitter #DarkSelfieChallenge - SUGA|
|200428||Hyundai Worldwide on Twitter #DarkSelfieChallenge ft. Jimin|
|200430||Liiv M X BTS - 취향 인터뷰 '제이홉' by KB국민은행 (j-hope)|
|200430||BTS x BODYFRIEND - "Duty on Precious" and "Forever"|
|200427||Forbes||4 Reasons BTS’s Online Concert Event Was A Great Business Decision||Thread|
|200428||K-media||Sports Donga reports that IU first proposed the collaboration to Suga and he accepted the offer, respecting her history of producing & composing songs.||Thread|
|200428||MTV News||Welcome to the Delightfully Chaotic World of RUN BTS||Thread|
|200428||Pinkvilla||Ex WWE wrestler No Way Jose reveals why he loves BTS||Thread|
|200427||Korea Herald||Stella Jang on her growth as singer-songwriter, co-writing BTS’ ‘Friends’||Thread|
|200429||NME||Every BTS Song Ranked In Order of Greatness||Thread|
|200429||Forbes||With BTS Concerts At A Standstill, Agency Behind The World’s Most Popular Boy Band Faces Its Biggest Challenge Yet||Thread|
|200429||Billboard||The Best Celebrity 'Toosie Slide' Videos, From Justin Bieber to BTS' J-Hope||Thread|
|200427||Daddy Yankee Retweeted A Video Clip Of BTS Dancing "Con Calma"||Thread|
|200428||Just Dance Twitter||Thread|
|200428||Stray Kids Bang Chan played 'Euphoria' on his Vlive||Thread|
|200428||Rapper Substantial comments about J-Hope's dance log video featuring his song with Nujabes||Thread|
|200430||MAX responds to SUGA's recent Twitter update||Thread|
|200503||Lauv reacts to Jungkook’s cover of “Never Not”||Thread|
|200503||Actress Ha Jiwon nominated Taehyung as one of the four people to relay the #ThanksToChallenge||Thread|
|200503||Artists and celebrities responding to Jungkook's "Never Not" tweet (compilation)|
|Video||200430||Seokjin and Jungkook's Mattel Dolls In Selena Gomez's Boyfriend MV||Thread|
|Video||200503||"Venus" danced to j-hope’s ‘Chicken Noodle Soup’ on today's Masked Singer||Thread|
|Other||200501||BTS in an pre-quarantine school magazine|
|Charts/Sales||200426||BTS's "ON" Has Become The FIRST Song By A Korean Group with the Most Hours At #1 on MelOn charts (in 2020 so far)|
|Charts/Sales||200430||The Albums of BTS's Jhope(Hope World), RM(Mono) & Agust D(Agust D) Has Re-entered US iTunes Chart|
|Charts/Sales||200501||BTS Map Of The Soul: 7 Has Been Certified Silver In The UK For Selling 60k Units|
|Followers||200502||BTS Has Reached 25 MILLION Followers on Instagram (They become the first group to reach this mark and remain the Most Followed Group on Instagram)|
|Likes||200428||BTS is the First and Only Artist in YouTube History to have 2 Music Videos with over 13 Million+ likes (BWL & DNA)|
|Streams||200427||JIMIN's "Lie" has now surpassed 100 MILLION Streams on Spotify (It's their 30th song to reach this mark on the platform)|
|Streams||200428||BTS is the first group to have thirty songs reach at least 100 million streams each on Spotify|
|Streams||200501||BTS's 'Mikrokosmos' Has Surpassed 100 MILLION Streams on Spotify (31st song to achieve this)|
|Other||200503||Jungkook's most recent tweet is now the most commented on tweet in twitter's history|
|200428||[With BTS] BT21's sheer cuteness... It's surely inherited.🤔||Thread|
|200429||[With BTS] BT21 UNIVERSE 3 - Facing Reality||Thread|
|200501||[With BTS] F O C U S E D 👀||Thread|
|200428||A guide to using forwarding services with the Weverse Shop!|
|200429||[Throwback] I NEED U MV & The Most Beautiful Moment in Life, Pt. 1 Album was released 5 years ago today|
|200430||Taehyung stopped by a game server and mentioned that he went to a strawberry farm with all members together|
|200501||Korean lesson with Magic Shop lyrics|
|200501||[Unconfirmed] Taehyung left a message in a game room that he wrote several songs and will produce his mixtape and asks us to look forward to it|
|jazzyfrizzle_||Embroidery Patch of MOTS:7 Album Cover :D|
|jooniespoon||I handmade all the outfits from the DNA MV for my Mattel BTS Dolls. Please tell me what you think! 💜|
|Bonzinho7||Quick sketch of V I did|
|Faolair||Today's livestream gave me a bit of inspiration <3|
|_WinterBear_||I made a little Yoongi out of clay. The paint job is a bit rough, but I still love him.|
2020.04.23 00:06 Orpherischt "The Characteristics of an Initiation Ritual"
The Characteristics of an Initiation RitualThe video examines the Coronavirus farce through the lens of a Mystery Initiation.
"If you only knew the magnificence of the 3, 6 and 9, then you would have a key to the universe." – Nikola Tesla
SiriusXM launches free coronavirus information channel, help line
SiriusXM will launch a special 24/7 channel dedicated to providing the latest information on the coronavirus outbreak.
Subscribers and nonsubscribers alike will be able to listen on both active and inactive SiriusXM radios at Channel 121.
Google Sees State-Sponsored Hackers Ramping Up Coronavirus AttacksWhich should be read as:
More than 12 government-backed groups are using the pandemic as cover for digital reconnaissance and espionage, according to a new report.
We have faked a pandemic to usher in the final global surveillance state - The One Song - The One Brave New World.
You know, but do you listen?
Australian Prime Minister is lobbying world leaders to build an international coalition to give the WHO— or another body — powers equivalent to those of a weapons inspector to avoid another catastrophic pandemic like COVID-19ie. in the words of Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars:
A coronavirus vaccine probably won't be ready before the end of 2021
Doctors puzzled by ‘COVID toes’ - purple blotches that are appearing on children's toes, and occasionally fingers, that seem to be an indicator that a child is an asymptomatic carrier of coronavirus
The Blood is the Life... ie. the lifeblood of jokes.
UK To Trial Coronavirus Treatments Using Blood From Survivors
Everyone 'dying' of coronavirus is 'dying' their iPads or Tampons purple.The most favourable season for taking these [shellfish] is after the rising of the Dog-star [Sirius], or else before spring; for when they have once discharged their waxy secretion, their juices have no consistency: this, however, is a fact unknown in the dyers' workshops, although it is a point of primary importance.
We da best tribe...
Fox News hosts have measurable effect on COVID cases, study finds
90% of the world's students are in lockdown. It's going to hit poor kids much harder than rich onesUnfortunate... or Intention ( Rich @ Reich )
Oil Surges as Trump Orders U.S. Navy to 'Shoot Down' Iranian Ships if They 'Harass' American Vesselshttps://www.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/g606ia/trump_orders_us_to_shoot_down_and_destroy_iranian/
Trump orders US to 'shoot down and destroy' Iranian boats 'harassing' US warshipshttps://www.reddit.com/worldnews/comments/g5t9pz/worldrenown_canals_in_venice_have_become_so/
World-renown canals in Venice have become so crystal clear since the coronavirus lockdown a jellyfish has been seen majestically floating through the water.
Air-conditioning spread the coronavirus to 9 people sitting near an infected person in a restaurant in China, researchers say. It has huge implications for the service industry.Just imagine the X-Ray vision required to make this possible
CORONAVIRUS TASK FARCE... and the guy speaking now has been chosen to speak because ...
Live: Trump and Coronavirus Task Force Hold White House Briefing
For the first time in three tries, the company successfully landed a first stage booster on an autonomous drone ship in the Atlantic Ocean. The flawless flight brings SpaceX one step closer to the much-anticipated launch of a Crew Dragon spacecraft
It's all bad —To pick up a new Venus you could go to the local bar, or join a hiking society, or perhaps even hit on the hot secretary at work... except now you can't... because you're stuck at home... following the orders of the elite drama school called 'government', and their fiendish friends, the Seedy See, and that hip bandcamp known as the WHO?
There seems to be no pattern to where humans pick up new viruses
'The Demon's Name Is Surveillance' - Meshuggah
'Clockwords' - Meshuggah
'Bathory Aria', by Cradle Of Filth
'Demiurge' - MeshuggahFrom wikipedia:
The word "demiurge" is an English word derived from demiurgus, a Latinised form of the Greek δημιουργός or dēmiurgós. It was originally a common noun meaning "craftsman" or "artisan," but gradually came to mean "producer," and eventually "creator."
King of Thailand ‘isolates’ from coronavirus with 20 women.
A Mishnaic textual source makes clear that the word gematria is dated to at least the Tannaic period:... which is from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gematria
Rabbi Eleazar Chisma said: "the laws of mixed bird offerings and the key to the calculations of menstruation days—these, these are the body of the halakhah. The calculation of the equinoxes and gematriot are the condiments of wisdom."
Her archaic association was primarily with cattle, as a Cow Goddess, who was especially venerated in "cattle-rich" Euboea. On Cyprus, very early archaeological sites contain bull skulls that have been adapted for use as masks. Her familiar Homeric epithet Boôpis, is always translated "cow-eyed". In this respect, Hera bears some resemblance to the Ancient Egyptian deity Hathor, a maternal goddess associated with cattle.Of the epithet 'Boopis'... ponder: Betty Boop.
[...] Even America's National Security Agency got into the Pi Day fun this year, daring readers on Twitter to try to crack the code hidden in this sentence:
"Now, I make a tasty delicious or hidden treat and share messages decrypted through numbering..."
UNDERWORLD - The Corvinus Virus Explained
Therion - 'Adulruna Rediviva' (13m37s)
Secret Mysteries of the Ancient Goddess
2020.04.17 16:50 clemaneuverers Evidence for Advanced Culture in Distant Ages: a comprehensive compendium of the most credible archeological OOPARTS (Out Of Place ARTifacts) that have been found in the strata of our earth over the years, by both archeologists and layman alike, complete with details, illustrations and/or photos.
2020.04.09 00:18 CuteBananaMuffin Global Risks 2013 and X Factor - The Disturbing Report by The World Economic Forum
2013submitted by CuteBananaMuffin to conspiracy [link] [comments]
extracted from 'Global Risks Report 2013'
from Reports.Weforum Website
In this section, developed in collaboration with Nature, a leading science journal, the Risk Response Network asks readers to look beyond our high-risk concerns of the moment to consider a set of five X factors and reflect on what countries or companies should be doing to anticipate them.
In a world of many uncertainties we are constantly on the search to identify “X factors” - emerging concerns of possible future importance and with unknown consequences.
Looking forward and identifying emerging issues will help us to anticipate future challenges and adopt a more proactive approach, rather than being caught by surprise and forced into a fully reactive mode.
X factors are serious issues, grounded in the latest scientific findings, but somewhat remote from what are generally seen as more immediate concerns such as,
failed states extreme weather events famine macroeconomic instability armed conflictThey capture broad and vaguely understood issues that could be hatching grounds for potential future risks (or opportunities).
Runaway Climate Change
X Factors: Runaway Climate Change
The threat of climate change is well known.
But have we passed the point of no return? What if we have already triggered a runaway chain reaction that is rapidly tipping Earth’s atmosphere into an inhospitable state?
The natural greenhouse effect is a prerequisite for life. Without it, the Earth’s global average surface temperature would be far below zero. But our planet’s climate is a volatile beast. Small fluctuations in the Earth’s orbit around the sun can exert a major influence on our climate.
So can the varying concentration in the Earth’s atmosphere of heat-trapping molecules such as carbon dioxide, to which we have been adding through greenhouse gas emissions.
How pronounced and how fast the warming will be (and how it will affect rainfall and storminess) is hard to say as even the most sophisticated computer models cannot capture all the factors involved in a system as complex as the Earth. But it could be more dramatic and difficult to adapt to than most scientists predict because of the natural feedbacks in the system, linked to processes in the oceans 1 and on land.2
They have the potential to amplify climate change to a point of fundamentally disrupting the global system.
The much debated questions are where these tipping points lie, how soon they might be reached, whether they can be predicted - and what will happen when they are crossed.3
1 - Schmittner, A. & Galbraith, E.D. Glacial Greenhouse-gas Fluctuations Controlled by Ocean Circulation Changes. In Nature, 2008, 456:373-6. 2 - Arneth, A., Harrison, S. P., Zaehle, S., et al. Terrestrial Biogeochemical Feedbacks in the Climate System. In Nature Geoscience, 2010, 3:525-532. 3 - Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., et al. Tipping Elements in the Earth's Climate System. In Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2008, 105:1786-93.
The perhaps best-known positive feedback mechanism is the so-called ice-albedo feedback. In a warmer world there will be less snow and sea ice.
Their melting reveals the darker land and water surfaces below, which absorb more solar heat. More absorption then causes yet more melting and warming, and so forth, in a self-reinforcing feedback loop.
The unprecedented thawing of 97% of Greenland’s surface ice in July 2012, for example, has led to a darkening of Greenland’s ice cap, meaning that it will begin to absorb higher levels of solar energy and melt faster still.
Melting of the complete Arctic summer sea ice - the Arctic is expected to be seasonally ice-free by around 2040 - could probably be reversed on human timescales if greenhouse gases are reduced and temperature drops.
But if the several kilometer-thick ice sheets that cover Greenland and Antarctica dwindle, they may not so easily reappear in a cooler world. New ice would have to form at low elevations, where temperatures are higher.
Permafrost melting, land use and vegetation changes, and the effects of changing cloud cover provide for other major feedback mechanisms. Some scientists suspect that by 2040 up to 63 billion extra tonnes of carbon - and up to 380 billion tonnes by 2100 - might be released by the thaw and degradation of permafrost soil alone.4
4 - Schuur, E.A. & Abbott, B. Climate Change: High Risk of Permafrost Thaw. In Nature, 2011, 480:32-3.
Finally, there is the potentially huge feedback effect of water vapor, a natural greenhouse gas in itself.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more water. As the average air temperature soars in response to our burning of fossil fuels, evaporation and atmospheric concentration of water vapor will increase, further intensifying the greenhouse effect. On Venus, this probably caused a runaway greenhouse effect, which boiled away the oceans that may have existed in the planet’s early history.
Luckily, man-made climate warming has virtually no chance of producing a runaway greenhouse effect analogous to that of Venus.
Even so, scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assert that the water vapor feedback on Earth could be strong enough to double the greenhouse effect due to the added carbon dioxide alone.
While climate change debates of the past decade centered on whether or not humans could be responsible for altering a system as great as Earth’s climate, we may be rapidly moving into forced discussions on how best to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to cope as Earth’s climate auto-pilot mercilessly hurtles us towards a new and unknown equilibrium.
Significant Cognitive Enhancement
X Factors: Significant Cognitive Enhancement
Once the preserve of science fiction, superhuman abilities are fast approaching the horizon of plausibility.
Will it be ethically accepted for the world to divide into the cognitively-enhanced and unenhanced? What might be the military implications?Scientists are working hard to develop the medicines and therapies needed to heal mental illnesses such as Alzheimer’s and schizophrenia.
Although progress has been slow, it is conceivable that in the not too distant future researchers will identify compounds that improve existing cognitive pharmaceutical enhancers (e.g. Ritalin, modafinil).
Although they will be prescribed for significant neurological disease, effective new compounds which appear to enhance intelligence or cognition are sure to be used off-label by healthy people looking for an edge at work or school.
Enhancement could come from hardware as well as drugs. A handful of studies in people show that electrical stimulation - either directly via implanted electrodes, or through the scalp with transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) - can boost memory.
Cochlear implants are already standard treatment for the deaf, and motor implants for controlling neural prosthetics and devices are developing fast and will likely become more widely available in coming years. Retinal implants for the blind are a bit further behind, but the field is booming and it seems likely that they will be worked out soon.
The best interfaces still rely on invasive brain electrodes (non-invasive techniques do work, but are slow and inefficient), which is the major barrier to these being adopted by healthy people.
But it seems conceivable that within 10 years either we will have a new method for recording brain activity or the non-invasive signals will be decoded more efficiently. Direct brain interfaces of devices and sensors within our lifetimes are not out of the question, opening a new realm of enhanced neurobiology for those who can afford it.
This will pose ethical issues in many walks of life akin to those which surround “doping” in the world of professional sports.
Will we accept the idea that significant cognitive enhancement should be available to purchase on the open market? Or will there be, as there is with performance enhancers in competitive sports, a push for legislation to maintain a more level playing field?There is, in addition, a significant risk of cognitive enhancement going very wrong.
Cognitive enhancement pharmaceuticals work by targeting particular neurotransmitter systems, and, therefore, will most likely have a wide-ranging action. There is a significant possibility of unintended effects on other systems - for example, drugs to enhance learning may lead to a greater willingness to take risks; drugs to enhance working memory may lead to increased impulsive behavior.
Recent research suggests that, in addition to boosting memory, TMS could be used to manipulate a person’s beliefs of right versus wrong or to suspend moral judgment altogether. It could also be used to “erase” memory and deliberately cause permanent brain damage without the use of invasive procedure or blunt force trauma.
Both the intended and unintended effects of such new technologies would open whole new categories of potential dual-use dilemmas. (Dual-use describes technologies which can be used for good as well as for substantial harm.)
It is not difficult to see how such drugs could find applications in armed forces and law enforcement contexts, or conversely by criminal organizations and terrorist groups.
They could spark an arms race in the neural enhancement of combat troops.5
5 - Tennison, M.N. & Moreno, J.D. Neuroscience, Ethics, and National Security: The State of the Art. In PLoS Biology, 2012, 10:e1001289.
Such advancements could have profound impacts in 20 to 50 years on societal norms affecting how we approach issues including education and training, disparity between groups in society, informed consent and exploitation, and international laws on warfare.
Rogue Deployment of Geoengineering
X Factors: Rogue Deploying of Geoengineering
In response to growing concerns about climate change, scientists are exploring ways in which they could, with international agreement, manipulate the Earth’s climate.
But what if this technology were to be hijacked by a rogue state or individual?
Geoengineering can refer to many things, but it is most often associated with a scientific field that has come to be known as “solar radiation management”.
The basic idea is that small particles could be injected high into the stratosphere (chemtrails) to block some of the incoming solar energy and reflect it back into space, much as severe volcanic eruptions have done in the past.
In stark contrast to decades of technological evolution and political disputes about overhauling energy infrastructure to reduce greenhouse emissions, solar radiation management would act quickly and would be cheap to implement - though side-effects may make it a very expensive option.
Most research has focused on sulphur injection via aircraft. Recent studies suggest that a small fleet of aircraft could inject a million tonnes of sulphur compounds into the stratosphere - enough to offset roughly half of the global warming experienced to date - for US$ 1 billion-US$ 2 billion annually. li
In theory, the technology would be tantamount to a planetary thermostat, giving humans direct control over global temperature.
The direct impact of dimming the sun would be felt within weeks to months.
li - The most detailed cost and engineering analysis was commissioned by David Keith, currently at Harvard University, and conducted by Aurora Flight Sciences. That analysis, formally completed in July 2011, suggests that a small fleet of aircraft could inject a million tonnes of sulphur into the stratosphere - enough to offset roughly half of the global warming experienced to date - for US$ 1-2 billion annually.
However, a long series of ethical, legal and scientific questions quickly arises about countless additional effects that might be much more difficult to assess.
The problem is that incoming solar radiation drives the entire climate system, so reducing sunlight would fundamentally alter the way energy and water move around the planet. Almost any change in weather and climate patterns is likely to create winners and losers, but determining causation and quantifying impacts on any given region or country would be a huge challenge.
Nobody envisions deployment of solar radiation management anytime soon, given the difficulties in resolving a suite of governance issues (evidenced by the fact that even the relatively simple SPICE lii experiment in the United Kingdom foundered in the midst of controversy).6
Beginning with the United Kingdom’s Royal Society, many academic and policy bodies have called for cautious research as well as broader conversation about the implications of such technologies.
lii - Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering (SPICE) is a UK government-funded geoengineering research project that aims to assess the feasibility of injecting particles into the stratosphere from a tethered balloon for the purposes of solar radiation management. 6 - Cressey, D. Cancelled Project Spurs Debate over Geoengineering Patents. In Nature, 2012, 485:429.
But this has led some geoengineering analysts to begin thinking about a corollary scenario, in which a country or small group of countries precipitates an international crisis by moving ahead with deployment or large-scale research independent of the global community.
The global climate could, in effect, be hijacked by a rogue country or even a wealthy individual, with unpredictable costs to agriculture, infrastructure and global stability.
The problem is that the only way to truly test solar radiation management is at scale. This potentially conflates large-scale research with deployment, thereby giving rogue nations political cover under the guise of science.
Much research has gone into whether a program could be targeted at the Arctic, for instance, where the impacts of global warming are being felt the most, but some researchers suggest that the impacts could quickly migrate from the Arctic to other regions. Many say that a true test of solar radiation management would have to be global.
Due to such complexities, most of the science to date has been conducted via computer modeling, although scientists are looking for ways to test these ideas with local experiments.
But overall, despite calls for more coordinated government science programs, the funding landscape for this kind of science remains spotty. This leaves a gap for unregulated experimentation by rogue parties.
For example, an island state threatened with rising sea levels may decide it has nothing to lose, or well-funded individuals with good intentions may take matters into their own hands. There are signs that this is already starting to occur. In July 2012, an American businessman sparked controversy when he dumped about 100 tonnes of iron sulphate into the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of Canada in a scheme to spawn an artificial plankton bloom.
The plankton absorbs carbon dioxide and may then sink to the ocean bed, removing the carbon - another type of geoengineering, known as ocean fertilization. Satellite images confirm that his actions succeeded in producing an artificial plankton bloom as large as 10,000 square kilometers.
The individual hoped to net lucrative carbon credits, but his actions may have been in violation of two international agreements.7
Observers are concerned that this may be a sign of what is to come.8
7 - “Decision Adopted by the Conference of the Parties to the Convention On Biological Diversity at its Tenth Meeting: X/33 Biodiversity and climate change”. UNEP, Convention on Biological Diversity, http://www.cbd.int/climate/doc/cop-10-dec-33-en.pdf, 2010; and Lukacs, M. World's Biggest Geoengineering Experiment 'Violates' UN Rules. In The Guardian, 2012. 8 - Macnaghten, P. & Owen, R. Environmental Science: Good Governance for Geoengineering. In Nature, 2011, 479:293.
Costs of Living Longer
We are getting better at keeping people alive for longer.
Are we setting up a future society that must struggle to cope with a mass of arthritic, demented and, above all, expensive elderly who are in need of long-term care and palliative solutions?
The blessings of 20th-century medicine appear ready to explode with the deciphering of the genome and attendant advances. It is hoped that big inroads against common banes such as heart disease, cancer and stroke may be in the offing.
But these advancements may also enhance risks. Consider the impact on society of a growing number of elderly infirm who are protected from the most common causes of death today, but with an ever deteriorating quality of life, as other ailments that do not kill, but seriously disable, start to dominate.
Current trends are already setting the stage for such a future scenario in the West. The demographics of the Baby Boom are such that, according to conservative estimates, the number of Americans afflicted with Alzheimer’s disease will at least double, to 11 million, by mid-century.9
Similar rises are projected for many countries, with the global population of the demented expected to double every 20 years until it exceeds 115 million in 2050.10
A key driver will be increasing elderly populations and potentially declining fertility rates in low- and middle-income countries.
9 - “Recommendations of the Public Members of the Advisory Council on Alzheimer's Research, Care, and Services”. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Advisory Council on Alzheimer's Research, http://aspe.hhs.gov/daltcp/napa/AdvCounRec.pdf, 2012. 10 - Dementia: A Public Health Priority. 2012. Geneva: World Health Organization
The looming expense of caring for these masses is huge, especially in high-income countries.
The United Kingdom, for instance, spends nearly as much each year caring for the demented (£23 billion) as it does on strokes (£5 billion), heart disease (£8 billion) and cancer (£12 billion) combined.11
And the numbers afflicted with all of these maladies are only going to grow.
11 - Dementia: A Public Health Priority. 2012. Geneva: World Health Organization; and Luengo-Fernandez, R., Leal, J. & Gray, A.M. UK Research Expenditure on Dementia, Heart Disease, Stroke and Cancer: Are Levels of Spending Related to Disease Burden? In European Journal of Neurology, 2012, 19:149-54.
Consider Medicare, the US health program for the elderly.
Assuming no policy changes - for instance, no increase in the age of eligibility - the program’s outlays are expected to exceed its taxpayer-funded income by more than US$ 24 trillion over the next 75 years.12 liii
The spending trend is not limited to government support, either. In the United States, the cumulative total of public and private consumption by the elderly has ballooned in the last half-century.
The burden is accentuated in rapidly ageing countries such as Germany, where the ratio of effective producers per consumer is projected to decline nearly 25% by 2030.13
12 - “Financial Statements of the United States Government for the Years Ended September 30, 2011, and 2010”. Financial Management Services, http://www.fms.treas.gov/f11frusg/11stmt.pdf, 2011. liii - See page 46 and 47 under “financial statements” at http://www.gao.gov/financial/fy2011/11stmt.pdf. Add total liabilities for Medicare parts A, B and D together to get US$ 24.5 trillion. (3,252 billion + 18,854 billion + 7,466 billion) 13 - Lee, R. & Mason, M. “Population Aging and the Welfare State in Europe”. Global Trends 2030, http://gt2030.com/2012/08/01/population-aging-and-the-welfare-state-in-europe/, 2012.
Life expectancy has increased steadily in every decade since 1840, but these gains do not necessarily portend better health in later life.14
Thus, a new wave of disabled seniors may be on the way. The proportion of Americans aged 50 to 64 who reported needing help with personal care activities - such as getting into and out of bed and climbing 10 steps - increased significantly in the decade ending in 2007.
Arthritis was the top cause and diabetes played a prominent and growing role.15
14 - Crimmins, E.M. & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. Mortality and Morbidity Trends: Is There Compression of Morbidity? In The Journals of Gerontology Series B: Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 2011, 66B:75-86. 15 - Martin, L. G., Freedman, V. A., Schoeni, R. F., et al. Trends in Disability and Related Chronic Conditions among People Ages Fifty to Sixty-four. In Health Affairs (Millwood), 2010, 29:725-31.
Are there fixes that can avert the coming storm?
There are well-known but difficult-to-implement preventive measures that could help us live longer and to have better quality of lives: paramount among them is exercise, with its near-universal benefits for our physiologies and for warding off pathology.16
Obvious ways to mitigate cost implications would include raising the eligibility ages for the programs that support the elderly from the public purse - retirement income, social support services or reduced-cost health care - and raising the retirement age, requiring older adults to be productive economically for longer.
One recent analysis, using a “delayed ageing” model, found that hundreds of billions of dollars in increased costs to the US Medicare and Social Security programs could be entirely offset by raising the eligibility ages for Medicare and Social Security by a few years (from 65 to 68, and from 67 to 68).17
16 - Tatar, M., Bartke, A.& Antebi, A. The Endocrine Regulation of Aging by Insulin-like Signals. In Science, 2003, 299:1346-51. 17 - Goldman, D. Personal Communication. In Nature, Editor 2012.
However, increasing eligibility ages for public services is not a panacea, in part because financial costs are not the only challenge. The impacts of ageing populations will be felt throughout society, from changing best practices in urban planning to impacting social norms on care-giving.
More research is needed to turn chronic conditions to acute conditions (i.e. by developing curative treatments), and to find solutions that increase the capacity of all citizens to manage chronic conditions and to create wealth at the same time.
Discovery of Alien Life
X Factors: Discovery of Alien Life
Given the pace of space exploration, it is increasingly conceivable that we may discover the existence of alien life or other planets that could support human life.
What would be the effects on science funding flows and humanity’s self-image? It was only in 1995 that we first found evidence that other stars also have planets orbiting them.
Now thousands of “exoplanets” revolving around distant stars have been detected.
NASA’s Kepler mission to identify Earth-sized planets located in the “Goldilocks zone” (not too hot, not too cold) of sun-like stars has been operating for only three years and has already turned up thousands of candidates, including one the size of Earth.
The fact that Kepler has found so many planet candidates in such a tiny fraction of the sky suggests that there are countless Earth-like planets orbiting sun-like stars in our galaxy. In 10 years’ time we may have evidence not only that Earth is not unique but also that life exists elsewhere in the universe.
Suppose the astronomers who study exoplanets one day find chemical signs of life - for example, a spectrum showing the presence of oxygen, a highly reactive element that would quickly disappear from Earth’s atmosphere if it were not being replenished by plants.
Money might well start flowing for new telescopes to study these living worlds in detail, both from the ground and from space. New funding and new brain power might be attracted to the challenges of human space flight and the technologies necessary for humanity, or its artificial-intelligence emissaries, to survive an inter-stellar crossing.
The discovery would certainly be one of the biggest news stories of the year and interest would be intense.
But it would not change the world immediately. Alien life has been supposedly discovered before, after all. Around the turn of the 20th century, the US astronomer Percival Lowell convinced many people (including himself) that Mars was crisscrossed by a vast system of canals built by a dying civilization.
But the belief that humankind was not alone did not do much to usher in an era of goodwill and earthly harmony, nor did it stop the outbreak of World War I in 1914. The discovery’s largest near-term impact would likely be on science itself.
Suppose observations point to a potential future home for humankind around another star, or the existence of life in our solar system - in the Martian poles, in the subsurface oceans of Jupiter’s frozen moon Europa, or even in the hydrocarbon lakes of Saturn’s moon Titan.
Scientists will immediately start pushing for robotic and even human missions to study the life forms in situ - and funding agencies, caught up in the excitement, might be willing to listen.
The fledgling space economy had a big year in 2012, which saw the birth of space trucking when the first commercially built and operated spacecraft had a successful rendezvous with the International Space Station, and a host of celebrity billionaires declared intentions to make asteroid mining a reality.
Discovery of an Earth 2.0 or life beyond our planet might inspire new generations of space entrepreneurs to meet the challenge of taking human exploration of the galaxy from the realm of fiction to fact.
Over the long term, the psychological and philosophical implications of the discovery could be profound. If life forms (even fossilized life forms) are found in our solar system, for example, the origin of life is “easy” - that any place in the universe life can emerge, it will emerge. It will suggest that life is as natural and as ubiquitous a part of the universe as the stars and galaxies.
The discovery of even simple life would fuel speculation about the existence of other intelligent beings and challenge many assumptions that underpin human philosophy and religion.
Through basic education and awareness campaigns, the general public can achieve a higher science and space literacy and cognitive resilience that would prepare them and prevent undesired social consequences of such a profound discovery and paradigm shift concerning humankind’s position in the universe.
The eighth edition of the Global Risks report has sought to highlight the theme of resilience in the context of systems thinking.
Exogenous in nature, global risks cannot be adequately managed or mitigated by any single organization. We have introduced the conceptual framework of Professors Kaplan and Mikes,1 contrasting “external” risks such as global risks with “preventable” and “strategic” risks, to assist clarity of thought about how global risks should be approached.
Whenever it is difficult to predict how and when a risk will manifest, nurturing resilience is the preferred approach.
1 Kaplan, R.S. & Mikes, A. Managing Risks: A New Framework. In Harvard Business Review, 2012.
Throughout this report we have sought to frame risks in a systems context given its nature of interdependencies and to assist clarity of thinking about the best ways to build resilience.
Our three risk cases have discussed what happens,
when two major systems are stressed simultaneously (Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience) when a seemingly more minor system punches above its weight (Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World) when we become complacent in the continued ability of a system to stay one step ahead of a changing problem (The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health)In the Special Report, we explored the thinking of systems theorists about how to build resilient systems, describing how five components – redundancy, robustness, resourcefulness, response and recovery - can be applied to selected national subsystems.
As ever, this report forms the starting point of dialogue, which will continue throughout the year through a number of channels:
our dedicated virtual platform for members of the Risk Response Network’s trusted community the Resilience Practices Exchange workshops with our report partners and their stakeholders regional events around the world our Annual Meetings in the People’s Republic of China and in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland, where the theme for 2013 is resilient dynamismSpecifically, in 2013 we will take forward the task of building a trusted network of risk experts to help global leaders map, mitigate, monitor and enhance resilience to global risks.
And we will work to develop and refine the National Resilience Rating proposed in the Special Report.
The hyper-connected nature of the modern world makes it increasingly urgent to understand how best to build resilience in the face of global risks.
2020.04.06 21:15 realfootballUK 6th April 2020 - Miami Re-Lived: Venus vs. Serena 1999; Murray vs. Ferrer 2013
2020.04.02 10:48 ianvideo 2nd April 2020 - Wimbledon cancelled; Grass court season shelved - Our reaction
Hey Loves, today's video is Venus in Scorpio. What you need to know about Dating Scorpio. The way to Scorpio heart, dating a Scorpio Man or Scorpio Woman and falling in love with a Scorpio the ... Venus 2000 Clone, which I call: Venus Compact, because its size is only: 235mm x 135mm, 120mm high and 2700 grams. It's truly comparable to the Venus2000 and... The Slow Dating brand has been established for more than 15 years, and offer the best in speed dating around the UK. Sign up today to get the chance to meet singles just like you, either looking ... VENUS IN AQUARIUS LOVE STYLES ... DON'T DATE HIM GIRL #GEMINI #DATING #MEN #HUMOR - Duration: 7:52. Sohn Jee 10,672 views. 7:52. How to Seduce an Aquarius Man - Duration: 3:07. John Gray, the author of the book 'Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus' shared his knowledge about relationships in todays complex world at A-Fest Ibiza ... If you're new, Subscribe! → http://bit.ly/Subscribe-to-Nicki-Swift The title tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Dating Naked, a reality ... Want to learn more? Book a Chassidic walking tour at https://www.JewishBrooklyn.nyc/ Visit http://11213.org/ for Audio/Video of Rabbi Manis Friedman Like: ht... From his banter, to his love of Sunday Roast and football... what it's like to date that English man. Behind the scenes, dating tips and Google Hangouts HERE... Venus Williams may never match her little sister's stat-shattering tennis career, but the sports star siblings appear to be neck and neck in the romance depa... In this video, I explain how to feel good naked. I must confess that haven’t always been body-confident. Here I will open up about my own personal challenges...